Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.060691 0.069530 0.079496 0.091620 0.106048 0.122760 0.143717
2025-11-23 0.047967 0.058876 0.072259 0.090079 0.113482 0.143588 0.185936
2025-11-30 0.039817 0.051874 0.067801 0.090810 0.123935 0.171075 0.245465
2025-12-07 0.033462 0.045966 0.063622 0.091129 0.134348 0.202276 0.322858
2025-12-14 0.027718 0.039860 0.058034 0.088331 0.139924 0.229039 0.406721
2025-12-21 0.022208 0.033144 0.050312 0.080598 0.135854 0.239565 0.469509
2025-12-28 0.019307 0.029957 0.047546 0.080528 0.145471 0.279448 0.616192
2026-01-04 0.017242 0.027775 0.046049 0.082460 0.159938 0.336429 0.845351
2026-01-11 0.015315 0.025506 0.043987 0.082915 0.171994 0.395317 1.135216
2026-01-18 0.013673 0.023477 0.041997 0.083100 0.183970 0.462046 1.526145
2026-01-25 0.012043 0.021217 0.039159 0.080815 0.189541 0.516215 1.949337
2026-02-01 0.010529 0.018957 0.035931 0.076902 0.189774 0.556198 2.383689
2026-02-08 0.009587 0.017712 0.034668 0.077578 0.204001 0.657061 3.340302
2026-02-15 0.008731 0.016519 0.033311 0.077734 0.217303 0.768758 4.676635
2026-02-22 0.008094 0.015687 0.032621 0.079543 0.237402 0.931764 7.000577
2026-03-01 0.007499 0.014862 0.031799 0.080817 0.256911 1.118419 10.524760
2026-03-08 0.006824 0.013764 0.030132 0.079199 0.265269 1.261759 14.578858
2026-03-15 0.006012 0.012257 0.027208 0.073010 0.252645 1.271719 16.868291
2026-03-22 0.005602 0.011627 0.026423 0.073442 0.268858 1.496028 25.702086
2026-03-29 0.005306 0.011225 0.026167 0.075591 0.294704 1.841657 43.804450
2026-04-05 0.004984 0.010720 0.025547 0.076349 0.314976 2.192872 72.667862
2026-04-12 0.004683 0.010228 0.024886 0.076805 0.334626 2.594914 123.705632
2026-04-19 0.004337 0.009584 0.023692 0.074956 0.340839 2.883533 189.617080